Six months ago today, Jean Segura stepped to the plate in the bottom of the 10th inning against the Braves' Nate Jones and chopped a single into left field to score Bryce Harper with the winning run in the season opener at Citizens' Bank Park. They would go on to win the next two games to sweep the defending NL East champs, holding the offensive juggernaut to 3 runs total in the three games. As it turned out, that opening series was, as I expected at the time, fool's gold. Last night, the hated Braves turned the tables. When reliever Will Smith struck out Phils' third baseman Ronald Torreyes on a breaking ball in the dirt to cap off a 1-2-3 9th inning (9 pitches, 9 strikes), he clinched the NL East title for the 4th straight year for the Braves (and the 16th time since 1995), effectively sticking a fork in a franchise that has now missed the playoffs for 10 consecutive years, the longest current streak in the National League.
None of this comes as a surprise, of course. When the season began, I "boldly" predicted an 81-81 record, the same as they had in 2019, the last 162-game season. I just didn't see any real, objective reason for optimism (not being an optimist by nature didn't help, either). At present, they stand at 81-78, with three games remaining against the lowly Marlins in Miami. Then again, the team has scored 4 earned runs in their last 39 innings, and has gone 11-18 in Miami since 2018, so who knows? As it stands, they need one victory to log the franchise's first winning record since Ryan Howard's ruptured Achilles' tendon ended their memorable 102-win 2011 campaign.
What went wrong, and what is the solution? The first question is easier than the second to answer. I may be judged too critical or negative, too typically "Philadelphian," but the answer is simple: they simply are not that good. Whereas the Braves are a genuinely good team, the Phillies are a portrait of both inconsistency and mediocrity. I have followed the team since the fateful 1964 campaign. I have seen great teams from the glory days of 1976-83 and 2006-11. I have seen overachieving, fun teams to watch, most notably Harry Kalas's favorite '93 ragtag renegades of Dykstra, Kruk, and Daulton. This team was neither fun to watch nor overachieving, let alone great. All season they have flirted with the .500 mark, bouncing around from 1st to 4th place along with (mostly) the Braves and the likewise underachieving and injury-addled Mets. When, at the trade deadline at the end of July, the team lost 4 of 5 games to the lowly Nationals and Pirates, they stood 2 games under .500 and 5 games behind the Mets, I begged the team to sell, seeing no reasonable hope for a divisional title. The very next day they decided to beat the Bucs, 15-4, leading to an 8-game winning streak, which vaulted the team into first place ahead of New York, which got the town's sports media excited about the pennant race. The city's fans, however, were a bit more circumspect ... and skeptical. And rightly so. They proceeded to lose 11 of their next 15 games, to fall 4.5 games behind the resurgent Braves, who had replenished themselves at the trade deadline with veritable thefts of sluggers Jorge Soler and Adam Duvall, who somewhat made up for the team's loss of injured star outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. What made matters worse, not only did they lose 4 of 5 to good teams like the Dodgers and Rays, they were swept by the lowly Diamondbacks, who had entered the series with a 38-81 record. Such is simply inexcusable. Later, in September, after blanking the Brewers, 12-0, to move within a game of the Braves, they proceeded to lose 6 of 7, including 3 of 4 at home to the Colorado Rockies, a team who, at the time, was 30 games below .500 on the road. Then, after pulling to within a game of the Braves last Saturday on Ranger Suarez's shutout of the Pirates, they promptly fell flat on their faces, getting shut out, 6-0, at home, on Sunday by rookie Max Kranick (who had entered the game with a 7.28 ERA) and assorted other relievers, and then getting swept by the Braves, scoring 6 runs (4 earned) on 13 hits in 3 games. Such is not the portrait of a team worthy of making the playoffs.
Despite the fact that the Phillies have a $177.4 million payroll, the 5th-highest in MLB (roughly what one might expect considering the size of the market), the team really has only two great players, rightfielder Bryce Harper and starting pitcher Zack Wheeler. Indeed, Harper has, almost single-handedly willed the team into the postseason with his play the second half of the season. As it is, his numbers thus far―40 doubles, 34 home runs, 99 runs, .305 average, .607 slugging, a MLB-leading 1.033 OPS, 176 OPS+, 6.3 fWAR―are certainly worthy of all the talk of his possible coronation as the NL MVP. Indeed, until his recent slump, including his 0-11 this week in Atlanta, the award was virtually assured. But, in the final at bat of a 17-8 blowout win over the Cubs on the 16th, a game in which he hit 2 doubles and a homer to go along with two walks, he struck out wildly trying to homer in his final at bat. My son and I looked at each other and said we hoped that wouldn't get him into a funk. Well, counting that at bat, since that time, he has gone 9-42 with 2 doubles and 1 home run, and his average has dropped from .315 to .305. It has been the most inopportune time to go into a funk. But funks happen. Slumps happen. And Bryce's slump, ironically, has demonstrated why he, and not the Braves' Austin Riley, is the NL's MVP. If Riley has a bad game or two, he need not press, After all, he has Freddie Freeman. He has Ozzie Albies. He has Adam Duvall. He has Jorge Soler. He has Darby Swanson. And next year he will have Ronald Acuna. Bryce Harper has J. T. Realmuto, a cleanup hitter with a .444 slugging percentage? Brad Miller? Andrew McCutchen with his .184 BA versus RHP? Didi Gregorius? That's the point. Harper's slump exposed the barrenness of the Phillies' offense for what it is, especially after the loss of slugger Rhys Hoskins to injury the last two months of the season. Wheeler, meanwhile, is one of the top four or five starting pitchers in the NL. 14 wins, a 2.78 ERA, and league leading numbers in innings (213.1) and strikeouts (247) could have been enough to earn him the Cy Young Award were it not for HOF-bound Max Scherzer's performance the last two months for the Dodgers.
What's to be done about it? I don't have any easy answers, or else I would have applied for Dave Dombrowski's job. The Braves appear to be in the same position they were in back in the 1990's, when their big 3, HOF-bound starting rotation of Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz made them, for all practical purposes, impregnable, except for the improbable and medicinally-facilitated 1993 season. Their lineup is formidable―234 home runs, 2nd in the NL; 776 runs, 3rd in the NL―and laced with youth. Second baseman Ozzie Albies is 24; third baseman Austin Riley is 24; most significantly, outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr., who, along with Fernando Tatis, Jr., appears primed to supplant the injury-prone Mike Trout as baseball's premier all-around player, is only 23. Their pitching staff is also loaded, and not only with old-timers like the still-valuable Charlie Morton. Max Fried (14-7, 3.04) is 27; Ian Anderson (8-5, 3.58) is 23; perhaps most significantly, the injured Mike Soroka, who went 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA in 2018, is 24. And to think Alex Anthopoulos made the steals he did at the trade deadline, while the Phils got ... Freddy Galvis, Ian Kennedy, and Kyle Gibson, is nothing if not depressing to a lifelong Phillies fan.
The only untouchables on the Phils roster should be Harper, Wheeler, and Realmuto who, though he had a "down" season offensively, still remains the class among NL backstops. Jean Segura likewise remains a good second hole hitter (.292) with a fine glove and rifle throwing arm. Rhys Hoskins (27 homers in only 389 AB's, .530 slugging pct.) should also stay, especially if the NL adopts the DH rule for next season. His streakiness can be infuriating at times, but his 126 lifetime OPS+ is basically identical to that of the 2005-2008 Pat Burrell, whose contributions to those Phillies teams, especially the 2008 World Series champions, cannot be gainsaid. Andrew McCutchen is a more difficult decision. He is a quality individual, and is a good clubhouse presence. Likewise, he is still, at almost age 35, murder against left-handed pitching (.609 slugging, 174 OPS+). I would not be averse to having him platoon in left field if we could find another, older left-handed bat to fill in against right-handed pitching. Brad Miller's power bat, Ronald Torreyes's glove, and Matt Vierling's bat/glove/speed also could fill in the bench positions well. Wild cards include third baseman Alec Bohm, 2020 NL Rookie of the Year runner up with a .338 batting average, but utter disaster in 2021 both at the plate (.247, 76 OPS+) and in the field (-70 defensive runs saved), and 23 year old minor league shortstop Bryson Scott. Two things are certain, however: Odubel Herrera and (especially) Didi Gregorius have got to go.
On the pitching side of things, matters are no better. On the one hand, Ranger Suarez was, to say the least, a pleasant surprise, moving from the back of the bullpen to closer to, for all practical purposes, the team's number two starter. In 99 innings, he compiled a minuscule 1.45 ERA, capping everything off with his clutch shutout of the Pirates last Saturday. But after Wheeler and Suarez, what is there? Hopefully, after this disaster of a season, no one will say, "Aaron Nola," any longer. Nola has been considered an ace ever since his great 2018 season (17-6, 2.37, 224 SO). But after this season's implosion, it is safe to say that different scenery may be necessary if he is ever to regain that form. This season, Nola demonstrated an uncanny knack for throwing 2-strike breaking balls over the heart of the plate, resulting in a 9-9 record and 4.63 ERA. The stuff may still be there, but the command, all too often, is not. If they keep him, they need to do so as a back of the rotation guy, not as a presumptive number 2 guy. Perhaps the lack of pressure would do him some good. Kyle Gibson, likewise, is a back of the rotation guy at best. Dombrowki picked him up from Texas at the deadline because he had gone 6-3 with a 2.87 ERA for Texas the first half this season. But his 4-6, 5.09 record with the Phillies more closely adheres to what his mediocre-at-best stats from 2014-20 would suggest is his true value. The bullpen? The less said, the better. So far they have 34 blown saves, tied for the most in MLB history. Archie Bradley, Ian Kennedy, and Hector Neris are all free agents this winter. Does anybody really think any are worthy of big contracts to stay?
Dave Dombrowski has a lot of work to do. The Phillies Minor League System is in shambles, and has, not surprisingly, been reported to have a "toxic culture." Thankfully, Dombrowki has cleaned house and, just this week, hired Don Mattingly's son, Preston, to be their new Farm Director. To compete, they need at least two big bats, an offensive instigator a la Jimmy Rollins or Shane Victorino, more reliable fielding, two starters, and a reliable closer. This will mean letting go a lot of dead weight and opening up their wallets to free agency, no matter how painful. Remember, this is Philadelphia. Put a good product on the field, and the people will come. For us fans, we need to recognize that this franchise, which has been going strong since 1883, has really only had two golden eras, the aforementioned 1976-83 and 2006-11 (indeed, the city's best and most-beloved team was the long-gone Athletics), both of which were fueled, not by free agency, but by home-grown talent like Mike Schmidt, Greg Luzinski, Larry Bowa, Bob Boone, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard. Such will not happen again in the foreseeable future. It will take patience. This is always hard for Philadelphians. Especially for Philadelphians of advanced years.
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